Improving Electricity Market Price Forecasting with Factor Models for the Optimal Generation Bid

Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsM.Pilar Muñoz; Cristina Corchero; F.-Javier Heredia
Journal TitleInternational Statistical Review
Pages18 (289-306)
Start Page289
Journal DateAugust 2013
ISSN Number1751-5823
Key Wordsresearch; paper; electricity market prices; short-term forecasting; stochastic programming; factor models; price scenarios; Q2
AbstractIn liberalized electricity markets, the electricity generation companies usually manage their production by developing hourly bids that are sent to the day-ahead market. As the prices at which the energy will be purchased are unknown until the end of the bidding process, forecasting of spot prices has become an essential element in electricity management strategies. In this article, we apply forecasting factor models to the market framework in Spain and Portugal and study their performance. Although their goodness of fit is similar to that of autoregressive integrated moving average models, they are easier to implement. The second part of the paper uses the spot-price forecasting model to generate inputs for a stochastic programming model, which is then used to determine the company's optimal generation bid. The resulting optimal bidding curves are presented and analyzed in the context of the Iberian day-ahead electricity market.
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