research

Improving electricity market price scenarios by means of forecasting factor models

Publication TypeReport
Year of Publication2009
AuthorsM.-Pilar Muñoz; Cristina Corchero; F.-Javier Heredia
Pages12
Date09/2009
ReferenceResearch Report DR 2009/06, Dept. of Statistics and Operations Research, E-Prints UPC http://hdl.handle.net/2117/3047. Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya.
Prepared forPlenary session on the 57th Session of the International Statistical Institute, Durban, South Africa. Accepted for publication at International Statistical Review.
CityBarcelona.
Key Wordsresearch; spot price forecasting; scenario generation; MIBEL
AbstractIn liberalized electricity markets, Generation Companies must build an hourly bid that is sent to the market operator. The price at which the energy will be paid is unknown during the bidding process and has to be forecast. In this work we apply forecasting factor models to this framework and study its suitability.
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Stochastic programming models for optimal bid strategies in the Iberian Electricity Market

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2009
AuthorsF.-Javier Heredia; Cristina Corchero
Conference NameThe 20th International Symposium of Mathematical Programming (ISMP)
Conference Date23-28/08/2009
Conference LocationChicago
Type of WorkInvited oral presentation
Key Wordsresearch; stochastic programming; electricity markets; day-ahead market; bilateral contracts; futures contracts; optimal bid
AbstractThe day-ahead market is not only the main physical energy market of Portugal and Spain in terms of the amount of traded energy, but also the mechanism through which other energy products, as bilateral (BC) and physical futures contracts (FC), are integrated into the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL) energy production system. We propose stochastic programming models that give the optimal bidding and BC and FC nomination strategy for a price-taker generation company in the MIBEL. Implementation details and some first computational experiences for small real cases are presented.
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A stochastic approach to the decision support procedure for a Generation Company operating on Day-Ahead and Physical Derivatives Electricity Market

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2009
AuthorsCristina Corchero; M-Teresa Vespucci; F-Javier Heredia; Mario Innorta
Conference NameEURO XXIII: 23rd European Conference on Operational Research
Conference Date05-08/07/2009
Conference LocationBonn, Germany
Type of WorkInvited oral presentation
Key Wordsresearch; electricity markets; day-ahead; futures contracts; hydro-thermal
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A Stochastic Programming Model for the Thermal Optimal Day-Ahead Bid Problem with Physical Futures Contracts

Publication TypeReport
Year of Publication2009
AuthorsCristina Corchero; F. Javier Heredia
Pages19
Date03/2009
ReferenceResearch Report DR 2009/03, Dept. of Statistics and Operations Research, E-Prints UPC http://hdl.handle.net/2117/2795, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
Prepared forAccepted for publication at Computers and Operations Research
CityBarcelona, Spain.
Key Wordsresearch; Stochastic programming; OR in energy; electricity day-ahead market; futures contracts; optimal bid
AbstractThe reorganization of the electricity industry in Spain completed a new step with the start-up of the Derivatives Market. One main characteristic of MIBEL’s Derivatives Market is the existence of physical futures contracts; they imply the obligation to settle physically the energy. The market regulation establishes the mechanism for including those physical futures in the day-ahead bidding of the Generation Companies. The goal of this work is to optimize coordination between physical futures contracts and the Day-Ahead bidding which follow this regulation. We propose a stochastic quadratic mixed-integer programming model which maximizes the expected profits, taking into account futures contracts settlement. The model gives the simultaneous optimization for the Day-Ahead Market bidding strategy and power planning production (unit commitment) for the thermal units of a price-taker Generation Company. The uncertainty of the day-ahead market price is included in the stochastic model through a set of scenarios. Implementation details and some first computational experiences for small real cases are presented.
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DPI2005-09117-C02-01

 

DPI2008-02153

 

Optimal multimarket bid

 

 

Pla de treball:

  1. Estudiar normativa mercat reserva (P.O. 7.2)
  2. (CC) Modelització mercat de reserva: variables aleatòries rellevants-> arbres.
  3. (JH) Pensar com afecta secundària a l'oferta el mercat diari.
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